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Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades
12/22/2022 - Temporarily overshooting the climate targets of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius could increase the tipping risk of several Earth system elements by more than 70 percent compared to keeping global warming in line with the United Nations Paris Agreement range, a new risk analysis study by an international team of researchers shows. This tipping risk increases even if in the longer term the global temperature would stabilize within the Paris range. Avoiding an overshoot would hence limit the risks, the researchers conclude.
Map of the four interacting climate tipping elements. Each arrow represents a physical interaction mechanism between a pair of tipping elements, which can be destabilizing (denoted as +), stabilizing (denoted as −) or unclear (denoted as ±). AMAZ, Amazon rainforest; GIS, Greenland Ice Sheet; WAIS, West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
“We show that the risk for some tipping events could increase very substantially under certain global warming overshoot scenarios,” explains Nico Wunderling, scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and lead-author of the study to be published in Nature Climate Change. “Even if we would manage to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees after an overshoot of more than two degrees, this would not be enough as the risk of triggering one or more global tipping points would still be more than 50 percent. With more warming in the long-term, the risks increase dramatically.”
“To effectively prevent all tipping risks, the global mean temperature increase would need to be limited to no more than one degree – we are currently already at about 1.2 degrees,“ Jonathan Donges, Co-Lead of the FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene at PIK adds. “The latest IPCC report is showing that we’re most likely on a path to temporarily overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature threshold.”
Click here to access the entire press release as originally posted on the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) website.
Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades, Press Office, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Dec 22, 2022
Also see: Temporary warming over 2°C may cause cascading tipping events by Alison Bosman, News, Earth.com, Dec 29, 2022 This article is based upon the above PIK press release.
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