3 months ago
25
Nate Cohn/New york Times:
Christie’s Exit Should Give Haley a Chance in New Hampshire. Will It Be Enough?
A group of moderate voters is now available, but it may not put her over the top against Trump.
Of course, a Haley win in New Hampshire would not mean that Mr. Trump’s path to the nomination was in jeopardy. Not even Mr. Christie seems optimistic about her chances; he was heard on a hot mic Wednesday saying “she’s going to get smoked,” presumably referring to Ms. Haley, and he did not endorse her.
Her appeal is concentrated among highly educated and moderate voters, who represent an outsize share of the electorate in New Hampshire. She also depends on the support of registered independents — in some other key primary contests, they are not eligible to vote. Back in 2016, moderate candidates who went nowhere nationally — John Kasich, Mr. Christie and Jeb Bush — added up to 34 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. If you add the 11 percent held by Mr. Rubio, a mainstream conservative, that’s 45 percent of the vote that went for establishment candidates. In other words, this state is not representative of the Republican electorate.
Given that New Hampshire is not representative of either Democratic or Republican primary voters, maybe it shouldn’t go first for anyone. In that regard, South Carolina does a better job.
