Climate physical risks, ecological resilience, and spatial spillovers: evidence from China

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With the intensification of climate change, climate physical risks have become an increasingly important constraint on ecosystem stability and the sustainable improvement of ecological resilience. Using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2023, this study examines the effects of climate physical risks on ecological resilience and their underlying mechanisms. We combine the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chains, spatial Durbin models, and mediation analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, spatial effects, and transmission pathways of this relationship. The results show that ecological resilience in China improved over time, with narrowing regional disparities and stronger spatial clustering, whereas climate physical risks displayed an overall upward trend, increasing internal differentiation, and clear spatial persistence. Climate physical risks significantly reduced local ecological resilience and generated negative spillover effects on neighboring regions, while ecological resilience itself exhibited positive spatial dependence and club convergence. These negative effects were more pronounced in ecologically vulnerable regions, non-core urban agglomerations, and key ecological function zones. Mechanism analysis further shows that climate physical risks indirectly aggravate resilience loss by reducing biodiversity and crowding out ecological restoration investment. These findings provide empirical evidence on the spatial relationships and transmission pathways linking climate physical risks to ecological resilience, and offer policy implications for differentiated climate adaptation and regionally coordinated governance.
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