Geographic expansion, not viral intensification, leads to human dengue outbreaks in Mexico: a 40-year integrated remote sensing and machine learning analysis

BackgroundDengue fever poses a pervasive, yet escalating public health burden in Mexico and abroad.MethodsWe conducted a 41-year spatiotemporal analysis of dengue fever across Mexico (1985–2025), integrating monthly case surveillance with climate, land cover, vegetation, and novel disaster severity covariates derived from the Emergency Events Database. Four supervised regression models were tra...