IJGI, Vol. 12, Pages 451: Optimization and Simulation of Mountain City Land Use Based on MOP-PLUS Model: A Case Study of Caijia Cluster, Chongqing

IJGI, Vol. 12, Pages 451: Optimization and Simulation of Mountain City Land Use Based on MOP-PLUS Model: A Case Study of Caijia Cluster, Chongqing

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information doi: 10.3390/ijgi12110451

Authors: Yuqing Zhong Xiaoxiang Zhang Yanfei Yang Minghui Xue

Mountainous cities face various land use challenges, including complex topography, low land use efficiency, and the insufficient control of land use in small-scale areas at the urban fringe. Considering population changes, environmental conservation, and urban planning, this study first established three scenarios: economic priority (Econ. Prior.), ecological priority (Ecol. Prior.), and balanced development (BD), and then used the Multi-Objective Planning (MOP) model to calculate the optimal land use structure. Finally, it carried out land use spatial layout optimization based on the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model in 2035, Caijia Cluster, Chongqing, China. This approach, known as MOP-PLUS modeling, aimed to optimize land use. Meanwhile, the applicability of the PLUS model in simulating land use changes was discussed in small-scale mountainous areas. The results show the following: (1) The “quantity + space” approach in the MOP-PLUS model demonstrated the feasibility of the PLUS model in simulating land use change in small-scale mountainous areas. The overall accuracy (OA) of land use change simulation reached 81.60%, with a Kappa value of 0.73 and a Figure of Merit (FoM) coefficient of 0.263. (2) Land use optimization: Under the Econ. Prior. scenario, economic benefits peaked at 4.06 × 1010 CNY. Urban expansion was the largest, leading to increased patch fragmentation. The Ecol. Prior. scenario yielded the highest ecological benefits, reaching 7.46 × 107 CNY. The urban development pattern exhibited inward contraction, accompanied by urban retrogression. In the BD scenario, economic benefits totaled 3.89 × 1010 CNY, and ecological benefits amounted to 7.16 × 107 CNY. Construction land tended to concentrate spatially, leading to relatively optimal land use efficiency. Therefore, based on a comprehensive consideration of the regional land use constraint policies and spatial layout, we believe that a balance point for land use demands can be found in the BD scenario. It can ensure economic growth without compromising the ecological environment.