The above image shows potential temperature trends. Four of the trends are global ones and one trend is based on Arctic (64°North-90°North) data:
- The red line is a polynomial trend based on 15 years of Arctic data (2009-2023).
- The green line is a linear trend based on 1880-2023 global data.
- The yellow line is a linear trend based on 2009-2023 global data.
- The light blue line is a 10-year moving average (trailing), based on global data.
- The dark blue line is a polynomial trend, based on 2015-2023 global data, showing global temperatures catching up with the Arctic rise in temperature.
Note that the above image uses annual anomalies from 1951-1980. Recent posts show that, when adjustments are made for ocean air temperatures, for higher polar anomalies and for an earlier baseline, the 2023 anomaly could be as high as 2.5°C from pre-industrial and when using monthly data, the anomaly could be as high as 2.73°C from pre-industrial.
Due to feedbacks such as sea ice loss, the temperature rise is felt most strongly at higher latitudes North, as also illustrated by the image below.
Over the next few years, the temperature rise in the Arctic could accelerate strongly as a result of crossing of two tipping points, i.e. the Latent Heat Tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.
[ potential methane rise, from earlier post ] |
[ from the Extinction page ] |
The image on the right illustrates how a huge temperature could unfold and reach more than 18°C above pre-industrial by 2026.
As a rather sobering footnote, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.
[ from earlier post ] |
Climate Emergency Declaration
Links
• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Could Earth go the same way as Venus?
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html