Under China’s dual-carbon goals, the allocation of carbon allowance for urban public is playing a signficnat rule in promoting low-carbon development. This study examines 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi by integrating multivariate regression analysis with a zero-sum game data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) framework. A regression-based weighting scheme is constructed to develop a stringent initial allocation scenario to evaluate the sensitity of allocation outcomes and carbon allowance distribution mechanisms. The results show that under the unweighted scenario, ZSG-DEA strongly corrects historically shaped emission patterns, with allowance adjustments exceeding ±100% in several cities. In contrast, When key emission drivers such as economic scale, population size, and industrial structure are incoporated into the initial allocation, most adjustments remain within ±20%, while all the cities achieve efficiency unity. These findings indicate that the design of the initial allocation scheme strongly influences final carbon allowance outcomes. The research provides diagnostic insights for designing regionally adaptive, robust, and information-responsive carbon governance mechanisms for the urban building sector.
2 weeks ago
80
