7 months ago
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The above image, adapted from NASA, illustrates that September 2013 was the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record. What contributed to this?
The number of sunspots has been higher than predicted and looks set to keep rising above predicted levels until July 2025, as discussed here.
The eruption of the submarine volcano near Tonga volcano in January 2022 caused a lot of water vapor to reach high up into the atmosphere and this may still contribute to the temperature rise, as discussed here.
Aerosols that have a cooling effect, such as dust and sulfates (SO₄), are also important. As fossil fuel is burned, sulfates are co-emitted. Since they pollute the air, measures have been taken and are being taken to reduce them, e.g. in shipping, and this has pushed up the temperature rise. Meanwhile, cooling aerosols such as sulfates are still high. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from nullschool.net, SO₄ was as high as 8.621 τ at the green circle on On October 6, 2023, at 07:00 UTC. In future, SO₄ could fall dramatically, e.g. in case of a sudden economic collapse, reducing the aerosol masking effect rapidly and abruptly causing a substantial rise in temperature.
After little change in the Antarctic sea ice extent graph for decades, extent loss was dramatic in 2022 and even more dramatic in 2023, as less and less sunlight was getting reflected back into space and instead was getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.
Over time, however, albedo loss matters a lot. The white band around -60° (South) on the image below, adapted from NASA, indicates that the Southern Ocean has long been colder than oceans elsewhere, but is catching up with the global temperature rise. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean. A recent study points out that this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally.
The above image also illustrates that anomalies are highest in the Arctic, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics, with the air flow slowing down accordingly. This in turn changes the Jet Stream and the Polar Vortex, resulting in blocking patterns that can, in combination with rising temperatures, strongly increase the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events such as storms, heatwaves and forest fires.
Forest fires in Canada have been releasing massive amounts of emissions that push up the temperature, including greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, warming aerosols such as black carbon & brown carbon and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic carbon) and carbon monoxide that reduce the availability of hydroxyl, resulting in more methane and more ozone in the atmosphere.
At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current (AMOC) can result in more ocean heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic. As temperatures rise, increased meltwater runoff from Greenland and more icebergs moving south, in combination with stronger ocean stratification and stronger storms over the North Atlantic can cause a freshwater lid to form at the surface of North Atlantic that can at times enable a lot of hot water to get pushed abruptly underneath this lid toward the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic ocean. Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.
The next few months will be critical as Arctic sea ice is sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere, trapping heat underneath the ice and making it harder for ocean heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere above the Arctic. Furthermore, sea ice is very thin, reducing the latent heat buffer that could otherwise have consumed ocean heat.
The next danger is that the thin Arctic sea ice will rapidly retreat early next year as a warming Arctic Ocean will transfer more heat to the atmosphere over the Arctic, resulting in more rain and more clouds in the atmosphere over the Arctic, speeding up sea ice loss and further pushing up the temperature rise over the Arctic, as discussed at the feedbacks page, which also discusses how less Arctic sea ice can push up temperatures through the emissivity feedback. As temperatures rise over the Arctic, permafrost on land also threatens to thaw faster, threatening to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
Meanwhile, emissions of greenhouse gases keep rising, further pushing up the temperature, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.
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| [ Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from EIA ] |
There are numerous further feedbacks that can accelerate the temperature rise and tipping points that can get crossed and cause even more abrupt rise of the temperature. One of these is the clouds tipping point that in itself can cause a temperature rise of 8°C, as discussed here. Further feedbacks are also discussed at the Extinction page.
According to an earlier analysis, the temperature may already have risen by more than 2°C (compared to pre-industrial) in 2015, when politicians pledged at the Paris Agreement to take action to combat the temperature rise to prevent this from happening. The image below is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1885-1915, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base, and has trends added.
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, at a rate of 7% for each Degree Celsius the temperature rises. As temperatures keep rising, ever more water vapor will be sucked up by the atmosphere. This will also cause more droughts, reducing the ability of land to sustain vegetation and provide soil cooling through shading and through evaporation and formation of lower clouds, as discussed here. More water vapor in the atmosphere will further speed up the temperature rise since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. This makes it critical to assess by how much the temperature has already risen.
According to an earlier analysis, the temperature may already have risen by more than 2°C (compared to pre-industrial) in 2015, when politicians pledged at the Paris Agreement to take action to combat the temperature rise to prevent this from happening. The image below is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1885-1915, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base, and has trends added.
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Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Sep.2023 data. Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan.2010-Sep.2023 data. |
Conclusion
Alarms bells have been sounding loud and clear for a long time, as discussed in posts such as this one, warning that the temperature could rise by more than 3°C by 2026. The above magenta graph shows how this could occur as early as next year (end 2024).
The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.
Links
• NASA - global maps
• NOAA - ENSO and Temperature bars
• Nullschool.net
• NSIDC - sea ice graph
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means
• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts
• NASA custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html
• Transforming Society
• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts
• NASA custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html
• Transforming Society
