Midterm elections almost always favor the party out of power, giving Republicans an immediate edge heading into next year's races. By dint of historical trends alone, Republicans could have done almost nothing other than complain about President Joe Biden and they would have been in prime position to potentially flip both congressional chambers in 2022. After all, they only need to net one seat in the Senate and five seats in the House—to say nothing of the upcoming gerrymanders.
But instead, Republicans opted to cling to Donald Trump, who has two key obsessions: 1) pushing his baseless 2020 election fraud lie and 2) promoting loyalists who push his baseless 2020 election fraud lie. Notice that neither of those have anything to do with helping the Republican Party or securing GOP majorities next year. To wit, Trump is currently trying to eject Sen. Mitch McConnell as Senate minority leader instead of collaborating with him to flip the Senate next year. Why? Clearly because McConnell declared there was no evidence of enough systemic voter fraud in 2020 to overturn the election. In fact, McConnell said, "This election actually was not unusually close."