Ukraine update: War accounting

6 months ago 43

From the moment that Vladimir Putin launched this illegal, unprovoked invasion, open source intelligence from hundreds of sources has been vital for both reporters and the general public when it comes to understanding events in Ukraine. That applies to the politics within each nation, the shuffling of roles within the militaries, and the vital behind-the-scenes logistics.

There are many different ways in which open source intelligence, known as OSINT, has helped to create a measuring stick for the relative strength and success of Russian invaders and Ukrainian defenders. Often that measurement has come in the form of maps and the calculation of distances as the two militaries vie over control of territory, and that may well be the most effective measure. However, those numbers have changed rapidly on occasion.

The most common and most familiar measure of day-to-day action may be the one that is posted by the General Staff of the Ukrainian military. Their summary of Russian losses gives an estimate of Russian equipment and personnel going back to the start of the invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. It also breaks out the losses for the latest day. These numbers get repeated widely on social media, and (with some caveats) on Daily Kos. But how well do they measure real Russian losses, and how much does that matter?

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