Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?

1 year ago 65

The above image is from a recent analysis by Karina von Schuckmann et al. and shows that the Earth is heating up, as outgoing radiation is suppressed. More and more extra heat is kept captive on Earth and gets stored mainly in oceans (89%), with smaller proportions getting stored on land (6-5%), in the cryosphere (4%) and in the atmosphere (1-2%). The image also shows another change: 1% more heat gets stored in the atmosphere while 1% less gets stored on land for the period going back to 1971, compared to the period going back to 2006.

What could cause that change? Most heat on land is stored in the ground (90 %), with inland water bodies accounting for 0.7 % and permafrost thawing accounting for 9 %. This raises fears that water that was previously present in the ground, is increasingly moving into the atmosphere, as a warming atmosphere holds more water vapor (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). This further amplifies the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas and it also constitutes a tipping point, the Land Evaporation Tipping Point, since at some stage water will no longer be available for further evaporation from land, and the rise in land surface temperature will accelerate accordingly.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Loss of ice constitutes several further tipping points. About a quarter of the 4% heat consumed by the cryosphere goes into melting glaciers. Disappearance of glaciers could be coined the Glaciers Tipping Point, since from that point heat can no longer go into melting the glacier and will instead go elsewhere.

Similarly, about a quarter of the 4% heat consumed by the cryosphere goes into melting Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice also constitute a tipping point, since incoming heat will from that point on instead go into the Arctic.

So, will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?

El Niño

Ominously, November 2023 temperature anomalies are forecast to be at the top end of the scale for a large part of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the tropicaltidbits.com image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Also note the high temperature anomalies forecast on the above image for the equatorial Pacific, indicative of an El Niño.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream.

Vast amounts of ocean heat are moving toward the Arctic, especially in the North Atlantic, threatening to cause rapid and massive melting of Arctic sea ice and thawing of permafrost.

As discussed in a recent post, the world sea surface temperature (between 60°South and 60°North) has been at 21°C or higher for as many as 38 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981.

The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic was 21°C on May 5, 2023, much higher than it was last year (in 2022), while it reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September 2022.

Rising temperatures of the water in the Arctic Ocean threaten to trigger massive loss of sea ice (with loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo) and subsequent eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.

Some developments could make things even worse and a huge temperature rise could unfold soon.

Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments

An earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a recent study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.

[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]

The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

Loss of Arctic sea ice is often recognized as a tipping point that accelerates heating up of the Arctic through albedo loss and loss of the latent heat buffer. Loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America is often regarded as a tipping point that could trigger huge emissions of greenhouse gases. Similarly, loss of Antarctic sea ice, loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could each also be seen as tipping points, since further melting could trigger destabilization of local hydrates resulting in eruption of vast amounts of methane.

In conclusion, and as discussed in various earlier posts, there are many tipping points that could get crossed soon, including:

- The Glaciers Tipping Point

- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (destabilization of sediments)
- The Clouds Tipping Point (at 1200 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent)
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point (discussed above)
- The Ocean Surface Tipping Point (discussed above)

In the video below, Guy McPherson gives his views.